July 7, 2022: -With the Luhansk region under Russian control, President Vladimir Putin may now focus on taking all of the Donbas regions in eastern Ukraine before offering a cease-fire, a defense policy analyst told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Putin offers the potential for a cease-fire if only to give him an opportunity to fortify the gains that he is managing to achieve so far,” said Victor Abramowicz, principal of Ostoya Consulting, advising firms in the defense industry.
On Monday, Putin congratulated his troops for “liberating” the Luhansk province after a few weeks of bloody fighting that took a toll on the Russian and Ukrainian sides. Numerous deaths have been reported. Many of the area’s infrastructure, including residential buildings, has been razed.
According to local officials,
Russian forces are focused on capturing the neighboring Donetsk region of the Donbas, with the province coming under heavy shelling.
Though the campaign has not gone way, Abramowicz said, Russia seems “serious certainly” able to achieve its more limited objectives in the Donbas. Abramowicz said that if Putin offered a cease-fire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be in a tough spot.
“There is no particular reason to believe that acceptance of a Russian cease-fire will lead to an enduring peace,” he said, which adds that this would give Russia the potential to fortify its troops and attack again.
On the different hand, if Zelenskyy doesn’t accept a cease-fire, he raises “the risk of losing, potentially, some of the Western support he relies on,” Abramowicz added that the choice might be forced upon him by Western leaders.
And if Zelenskyy would accept such a cease-fire depends on how much military and financial support he feels he can receive from the West.
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