INdustrycTceh INsight Logo

In November, consumer rates increased less than anticipated and surged to 7.1% from a year ago

Rates

December 15, 2022: -In November, Prices surged less than anticipated, the latest sign that the runaway inflation that grips the economy is starting to loosen up.

The consumer rates index, which measures a basket of goods and services, increased just 0.1% from the last month and increased 7.1% before a year, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had anticipated a 0.3% every monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, known core CPI increase 0.2% on the month and 6% annually, compared with respective of 0.3% and 6.1%.

Stocks initially went higher following the statement, with futures linked to the Industrial Average up over 800 points before relaxing. However, the rally lost much steam through the session, and the Dow increased by just 50 points.

“Cooling inflation will improve the markets and take pushes off the Fed for raising rates, but necessarily, this spells real relief starting for Americans whose economies have been punished by higher prices,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “This is especially true for lower-income Americans disproportionately hurt by inflation.”

Decreased energy prices helped keep inflation at bay. The energy index refused 1.6% for the month, partly due to a 2% decrease in gasoline. Food prices, therefore, increased by 0.5% and were high by 10.6% from a year ago. Despite its monthly decline, the energy index increased by 13.1% from November 2021.

Shelter costs, which comprise about one-third of CPI weighting, continued to escalate, increasing 0.6% on the month and now up 7.1% annually.

The easing of inflation pressures supporting gives workers a lift following months of seeing wage increases fall short of inflation. Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.5% for the month, though they still decreased by 1.9% from a year back.

The CPI report comes on the same day the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee started its two-day meeting. Markets widely expect the FOMC to state a 0.5 percentage point rate increase on Wednesday, regardless of Tuesday’s CPI reading.

“The Fed could dismiss the better-than-expected October as just one month’s data, but the decrease in November produces this recent disinflationary trend harder to dismiss,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a post-CPI note titled, “Stick a fork in it, inflation is finished.”

In November, consumer rates increased less than anticipated and surged to 7.1% from a year ago