June 24, 2022: -On Thursday, Euro zone bond yields tumbled after data showed business activity in the bloc slowed much over expected in June, adding to concerns more than global growth that have shaken markets this week.
In May, S&P Global’s flash composite purchasing managers’ index dropped to 51.9 in June from 54.8, indicating a slower activity growth. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a task of 54.0.
Bond yields had already dropped sharply on comparable data from the bloc’s leading economies, Germany and France, before the pan-euro zone figures showed a few results.
The data add to fears about elaboration and a potential recession that have gripped markets this week. Inflation data-fueled this out of Britain and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who said the central bank was dedicated to bringing inflation under control even if it risked an economic downturn.
Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, decreased almost 15 basis points to 1.474%; it was low in 1-1/2 weeks. It decreased 12 bps to 1.51% by 0815 GMT.
On Wednesday, the moves shadow one more 14-basis-point drop in the yield, setting it for the largest two-day decrease since the beginning of March.
Five-year yields, sensitive to the policy outlook, decreased the most and were nearly 17 bps. Italy’s 10-year adhesive yield decreased similarly, to as low as 3.508%, the weakest in two weeks.
“It seemed like recession risks were the main topic, and that’s how the market traded, and these PMIs just give the market one more reason to go one more leg more with that kind of scenario,” said Peter McCallum prices strategist at Mizuho.
“I still think it’s difficult for yields to be sustainably lower when we haven’t got inflation
pared back bets on rate hikes from the European Central Bank. They price around 160 basis points of speed hikes by December, compared with the expectation of 170 basis points before Thursday’s data.
According to economists Reuters, the European Central Bank resolved to increase its deposit rate following zero for the first time in a decade in September, with a 50-bps move taking it to 0.25%.
The poll experiences a nonaligned rate, which neither stimulates nor restrains demand, at between 1% and 1.75%.
