June 26, 2023: On Thursday, the Bank of England surprised companies with a 50 basis point increase in interest costs, its 13th straight increase as policymakers persistently wrestled with inflation surging.
The Monetary Policy Committee is stained 7-2 in favor of the half percentage point increase, which takes the bank’s base prices to 5%. The move fought market anticipations, which had priced in nearly a 60% chance of a 25-basis point surge.
Sterling slipped against the dollar following the announcement, while yields on U.K. government bonds retreated barely. The outcome on the 10-year gilt was decreased by around four basis points. Yields move inversely to prices.
On Wednesday, Fresh data showed annual U.K. consumer price inflation was 8.7% in May, while from the previous month, cementing market expectations that the MPC would opt for one more hike. Economists upped their anticipations for further monetary tightening in the future.
Most worryingly for the main bank, core inflation which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, was 7.1% year on year in May, up from 6.8% in April and celebrating its highest rate since March 1992.
“There has been substantial upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process, against the background of a tight labor market and continued strength in demand,” the MPC said in its summary Thursday.
“The MPC will continue to watch closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures in the economy as a whole, including the tightness of labor market needs and the behavior of wage growth and services price inflation. If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”
Policymakers are walking a tightrope as they attempt to tighten the monetary approach enough to quell inflationary pressures without triggering a full-scale mortgage crisis and recession.
The MPC said that the high digit of fixed-rate mortgages means the full impact of the increase in the bank rate so far “will not be felt for some time.”
“The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high, and we’ve got to trade with it,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement Thursday.
“We know this is hard. Many people with mortgages or loans will understandably worry about this. But it could be worse later if we don’t raise rates now.”
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